Start with the guide, then choose the trade scenario and inspect the PE, LP and DP results separately. Each model has its own assumptions and units.
Use the sections in order. Published evidence establishes what was reported; assumptions define the scenario; model results recalculate when you change an input. These outputs describe different economic questions and must not be added together.
Provenance key: source figure = historic report or official notice; repository model = existing code structure; assumed input = editable illustration; calculated result = derived by this page. No figure here is a forecast of infection or official reopening.
A commercial farm in the Karasburg State Veterinary District was reported positive; the company’s account of the ministerial announcement states 10 of 11 samples were positive at the Central Veterinary Laboratory. Serotype remains unverified here.
Ministry statement ↗WOAH lists suspension of the FMD-free zone without vaccination, effective 22 September 2026. Event closure, status-restoration application, WOAH recognition, importer approval and commercial recovery are different milestones.
WOAH status ↗The UK suspended fresh bovine, ovine and caprine meat certification from NA-1; its note distinguishes appropriately treated meat. Other destinations require separate confirmation.
UK authority notice ↗| Claim | Status | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Current usable vaccine stock and serotype match | Unverified | No procurement requirement calculated |
| EU, US, China, South Africa reopening dates | Unverified | Lag is an editable assumption, never an official forecast |
| 2026 national exports by product, price and destination | Unavailable in audited files | Historical Meatco destination volume only |
| North-to-south flows and northern market prices | Unavailable | No northern welfare number |
| Lab capacity, processing/cold storage, employment coefficients | Unavailable | No invented facility or jobs totals |
Nine conditional planning combinations. Event extent does not establish effectiveness of a policy. Market-access calendars are identical within each extent until a verified, destination-specific policy effect is entered. No vaccination option is assumed authorised in the southern free zone.
| Extent × policy | Affected share | Closure / lag / ramp | Destination, products | South eligible | Courses / coverage / wastage | Usable stock | Lead time / applicability |
|---|
South and north are distinct pools. Northern routine vaccination, if any, is not inferred from the southern scenario; no stock is transferred between zones. Enter a verified eligible head count for each geography and a product-specific usable inventory only after official confirmation.
R45 was a March 2026 South African bulk-delivery quote for a specified product, not a Namibian contract. N$ and rand are at one-to-one parity, but freight, product, order scale, taxes and field delivery differ. The N$55 increment is a stress-test assumption. South African statement; Bank of Namibia parity.
| Choice | Verified capability | Capital N$ | Operating / referral N$ | Throughput / turnaround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Use CVL capacity | CVL Windhoek exists; four staff received FMD diagnostic training in March 2026 | Unverified | Unverified | Unverified |
| Expand CVL capacity | VET001 accreditation listed; FMD test scope must be confirmed | Quote required | Quote required | Equipment and staffing plan required |
| Recognised external laboratory | Referral route and acceptance must be agreed | Unverified | Quoted per shipment and sample | Transport and acceptance must be confirmed |
Product authorisation, matching, import approval, cold-chain validation and monitoring have no verified Namibian fee or lead-time schedule in the audited evidence. They are unquantified budget lines, never zero costs. WOAH training record; SADCAS listing.
Three policies × three assumed extents × three dry-stress cases × seven horizons. The policy options share a market-access path within each extent: their actual effectiveness and importer eligibility are not estimated. Stamping out has the lowest enumerated programme cash in the common-path calculation; no national control policy is ranked.
| Outcome, unit and status | Stamping out | Limited vaccination | Broader vaccination |
|---|
Affected and unaffected PE groups are hypothetical southern subgroups. A transfer to farmers is government expenditure, not an additional domestic resource cost. Gross export receipts, profit proxies, partial surplus and fiscal cash are not summed.
One illustrative season; 140/75 kg/head feed needs, 100/55 kg/head neutral grazing and N$3.20/2.90 per purchased kg are assumptions. No farm population weights or verified feed import shares are available: national production and trade effects are unquantified.
The code has no births, replacement, herd demography or five-year feed and terminal-value calibration; a 60-month solved DP would be misleading. This twelve-month result never selects national disease policy.
The totals include only quantified or user-entered components. Authorisation, cold-chain capital, sample logistics, movement administration, animal losses, compensation and feed support remain unknown until populated. South and north inventory default to unknown, so vaccine cash uses a zero-stock stress case, not a verified procurement gap.
The hypothetical reopening change is not attributed to vaccination. The figure compares a user-specified profit proxy with incremental programme cash, not a social benefit-cost ratio. Veterinary authorisation, suitable vaccine and importer eligibility must be established separately.
| Candidate and original evidence | Decision and displayed effect |
|---|---|
| Meatco 2024/25 report, destination volumes reported for 2023 | Included EU 9.05m kg/year as historical processor proxy for trade panels; not national 2026 export data. |
Syntera GitHub data/sadc_syntera_trade_ready_v2.csv | Excluded: accessible GitHub file contents empty; no auditable partner/product rows or units for this build. |
data/processed/session42_sadc_corridor_prototype.csv, 25 June 2026; underlying Comtrade/feature store | Excluded from market calibration: Namibia animal-health exports recorded as zero because “not ingested”; prototype is not an official zero. |
utils/pcp_fmd_country_data.py and data/fmd_trade_benefits.csv | Excluded: constructed/prevalence values and trade-benefit origin, unit and year cannot validate Namibia prices or benefits. |
| FAOSTAT connector points to FAO QCL bulk, but local parquet not supplied | Livestock populations excluded; no verified zone head counts. Southern target sizes remain assumptions. |
| UN Comtrade reporter-world aggregate and regional corridor prototype | Excluded from bilateral substitution: partner identity, HS product split and comparable years unavailable in inspected artifact. |
Five separate dimensions: assumed extent, policy, destination/product calendar, dry stress, and 6–48 month horizon. The earlier 162-row, 6–48-month matrix remains available for comparison. The five-year policy section above contains the current 189-case results. Selecting inputs recalculates this earlier table and figures. “Conditional cash” includes only enumerated assumed line items, and is not the full public budget. Annualised neutral-climate PE surplus cannot be added to cumulative export receipts.
At the selected extent and horizon, rows compare the three conditional policies and three dry-stress states. For all dry-stress rows PE domestic economic surplus is withheld. For every row the combined social-welfare impact is not estimated.
| Policy | Climate | Gross exposed N$m | Diverted t / deferred t | Net receipts N$m | Conditional public cash N$m | Neutral PE annual ΔPS / ΔCS / ΔW N$m | Combined social welfare |
|---|
Upper panel: cumulative EU-proxy net receipt shortfall, N$m. Lower panel: cumulative conditional public cash on quantified assumptions, N$m. Same month axis; the series are neither commensurate welfare components nor summed.
| Source | Documented South African activity | Namibian usable/committed supply |
|---|---|---|
| Dollvet (Türkiye) | SA government reported 1.5m doses received by April 2026 and further 2m consignment. | Unknown; product matching and authorisation unverified |
| Biogénesis Bagó (Argentina) | SA government reported 2.5m received by April 2026; company described SAT1/2/3 product. | Unknown; SA purchase not a Namibia offer |
| Botswana Vaccine Institute | SA government reported 2m administered and 700k/month expected in early 2026. | Unknown; commitments to SA cannot be counted |
| ARC/OBP, South Africa | ARC reported a 12,900-dose pilot and 20,000/week planned; September IP licensing for scale-up. | Unknown; neither pilot nor plan is available stock for Namibia |
SA government, February 2026 · SA government, April 2026 · SA government, September 2026. Verify strain match and Namibia regulatory status before procurement.
The EuFMD VADEMOS app.R get_results() combines country/year/species forecasts, youngstock/adult shares, doses by age and coverage. The public R tool covers cattle, buffalo, camels, goats, sheep and pigs. The present north/south head counts and dose courses are user assumptions; no zone-resolved livestock forecast, eligible population, stock or official Namibia programme was imported. Inspect the published VADEMOS code.
Choose an assumed economic case, then change inputs. All money outputs below use an illustrative user-entered N$/kg price, not a documented destination export price. Each change recalculates the chart and tables.
Exposure is a counterfactual premium value. Diversion receipts, deferred shipments and permanently unsold quantity remain separate. These are revenue measures, not value added or welfare.
| Month | Displaced tonnes, cumulative | Gross exposure N$m | Shortfall N$m | Deferred tonnes, cumulative |
|---|
Current destination, assumed price, diversion and deferral; named closure, lag and recovery paths. This chart is an assumed scenario comparison, not a probability distribution.
| Destination | 2023 beef export volume, kg | Share of listed total | Source |
|---|
The report’s listed destinations total 15.50 million kg. Meatco reports no USA exports in that year. Prices and export values by destination are not supplied by this table.
The existing model/uk_fmd_pe_engine.py uses UK production, FX and trade inputs. Its price/quantity equilibrium and surplus calculations require Namibia-specific demand, supply, elasticities, processing and north–south flow calibration. A separate illustrative two-market PE adaptation below now displays these quantities; it is not a calibrated Namibia estimate.
legacy_pages/506_Syntera_Farm_LP_TAD.py uses SciPy linear programming for UK sheep and cattle feed, forage and labour resources. Southern commercial and northern communal farm coefficients and feasible activities have not been measured here. A separate two-activity LP illustration below shows conditional optimal sales and retention; no validated farm result or shadow price is claimed.
The existing FMD lab’s dist/lab/engine.js uses a finite-state Bellman adaptation with UK inputs and disease-related transition assumptions; app/fmd_uk_economic_twin.py also contains a simpler bridge. Neither is a calibrated Namibia multi-period reopening model. A separate deterministic 12-month herd-retention DP illustration below is labelled and parameterised independently; the monthly trade accounting remains separate.
| Repository/source | Unit and coverage | Use here |
|---|---|---|
boudava/syntera-dashboard/model/uk_fmd_pe_engine.py; config/uk_fmd_params.json | UK livestock sectors; GBP, annual | Method audit only; requires recalibration |
legacy_pages/506_Syntera_Farm_LP_TAD.py | UK farm head, feed, labour; GBP | Structure only; no Namibian farm result |
legacy_pages/512_SADC_SPS_Trade_Exposure_v3.py | Selected HS-code Comtrade, mixed years/countries | Data-quality caution; no baseline extracted |
data/processed/session42_sadc_corridor_prototype.csv | Namibia 2026 corridor prototype; trade not ingested | Rejected as a zero trade baseline |
| Meatco Annual Report 2024/25, export performance | 2023, kg beef by destination | Historical destination volume proxy |
The veterinary cordon separates market access. Northern communal activity, internal live-animal flows and southern export chains are connected but their transaction matrix is missing. This model covers a southern export-volume proxy only; it makes no claim that all displaced shipments enter domestic consumption.
The climate, labour and affordability sections below provide adjustable conditional calculations with explicit assumed coefficients. Verified stock, serotype, laboratory capacity, administrative costs, measured employment and household nutrition remain unresolved.
Exploratory annualised partial equilibrium adaptation. Baseline throughput and producer prices are from Meatco 2024/25. Domestic absorption (18.673 minus historical 15.50 million kg exports), the retail wedge, north demand response and elasticities are cross-year constructs or assumptions, not measured Namibian demand. Change a control to recalculate prices, quantities, surplus and the figures.
Assumed fixed retail markup, supply and demand elasticities; lines show baseline to selected scenario. Different north/south prices do not prove arbitrage across the cordon.
| Market | Production t/year | Domestic demand t/year | Exports t/year | Producer ΔPS N$m | Consumer ΔCS N$m | Partial Δwelfare N$m |
|---|
| Illustrative group | Annual change N$m | Boundary |
|---|
The conditional infected share and economic losses are explicitly assumed; there is no measured infected herd or farm-economic observation. Domestic consumer surplus and producer surplus changes are part of partial welfare, so do not add the trade revenue shortfall or these subgroup rows again.
The “infected” group is defined by the user’s assumed 10% baseline output share, 5% output reduction and N$3/kg extra marginal cost. It is not a reported count of infected premises or animals. North has zero infected share as a calculation assumption.
The curve varies only the assumed conditional output reduction; baseline infected share and added marginal cost remain user-selected. No observed infection or productivity loss is inferred.
Teal: two-market partial welfare; amber: assumed infected-group producer surplus change, both N$m/year. Horizontal axis: transferred demand elasticity from −0.4 to −1.2.
| Demand elasticity | South producer price N$/kg | South ΔPS N$m | South ΔCS N$m | Two-market partial Δwelfare N$m |
|---|
Default −0.75 is from a South African study of uncompensated beef demand, not an estimate for Namibia. The range −0.4 to −1.2 is an illustrative transfer sensitivity. Meat products, income groups and retail/producer levels differ.
| Input | Default | Unit | Source / status | Allowed or tested range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South throughput | 18.673 million | kg/year | Meatco 2024/25 | Fixed historical |
| North throughput | 1.398 million | kg/year | Meatco 2024/25 | Fixed historical |
| South / north producer price | 59 / 37 | N$/kg | Meatco 2024/25 | Fixed historical |
| South exports | 15.50 million | kg/year | Meatco 2023 table | Fixed cross-year proxy |
| Domestic demand baseline | South 3.173m / north 1.398m | kg/year | Derived south; assumed north | Uncalibrated |
| Beef demand elasticity | −0.75 | ratio | Taljaard et al. (2003), South Africa; transfer | −1.2 to −0.4 |
| Infected-group baseline share / output loss / extra cost | 10% / 5% / N$3 | share / share / N$/kg | All are assumptions; south only | 0–30% / 0–30% / 0–20 |
| Beef supply elasticity | +0.35 | ratio | Assumption | +0.10 to +0.90 |
| Retail wedge | 25% | retail / producer | Assumption | 0 to 100% |
| North exports / VCF crossing | 0 / unresolved | kg/year | Computational assumption / missing data | Not measured |
Objective: maximise sales receipts plus retained-herd terminal value, less feed and water. Constraints: head stock; slaughter/market channel; minimum retention; feed budget. Representative herd sizes, terminal values, feed costs and channel limits are stated assumptions; Meatco producer price and carcass weight anchor receipts. This is a transparent two-activity Namibia extension of the UK farm LP concept, not a calibrated prediction.
| Constraint | Allowed value |
|---|
Bellman objective: maximise current sales less retained-head feed expense plus discounted next-month herd value. State is herd size; action is an integer number of sales; next herd equals current herd minus sales. Monthly market access is an external fixed assumption. No disease process is simulated. Inputs below are scenario assumptions; this demonstrates a dynamic adaptation, not a Namibia-calibrated farm policy.
Defaults: 20 head, sale N$10,000/head, terminal N$7,500/head, monthly channel 4 head, discount 0.98/month, 6-month ramp, price penalty 30%. All are explicitly assumed. Outputs are separate from LP and PE and must not be summed.
| Parameter | Default | Unit | Source and range |
|---|---|---|---|
| LP southern/northern herd | 100 / 30 | head | Assumption, fixed in this illustration |
| LP minimum retained | 20 / 10 | head | Assumption, fixed |
| LP channel capacity | 70 / 15 | head/period | Assumption, fixed; restriction adjustable 0–90% |
| LP feed and water | 320+90 / 220+70 | N$/head/period | Assumption; feed inflation 0–100% |
| DP starting herd / terminal value | 20 / 7,500 | head / N$/head | Assumption, fixed |
| DP sale price / channel | 10,000 / 4 | N$/head / head/month | Assumption, fixed |
| DP discount / ramp | 0.98 / 6 | per month / months | Assumption, fixed |
Select neutral, moderate or severe *economic stress assumptions* for supply and feed/water. They are not a seasonal forecast or a claim that drought effects are caused by FMD. Compare FMD-only, climate-only and combined PE outputs in the table.
Price response only. Welfare is withheld for dry stress because the fixed export-quantity specification can manufacture positive drought welfare.
| Economic case | South price N$/kg | North price N$/kg | Partial welfare Δ N$m/year |
|---|
Dry-only and combined welfare are withheld pending bounded export demand, capacity, feed and water costs and imports.
Hours and wage are assumed coefficients; changes are production-linked exposure, never observed layoffs or net job loss. The food-affordability index compares an illustrative retail beef price to its baseline with income held constant. It does not measure calories, nutrition or household poverty.
Serotype, authorised product and existing usable stock are unverified. Use this only as aggregate arithmetic after product eligibility is established; no current stock is presumed.
Registration, serotype matching, product supply, procurement lead time and field availability must each be verified before a policy or budget decision. A numeric stock entry is user-supplied, not a Syntera-verified inventory.
Meatco 2024/25 reports 75,268 south and 7,844 north cattle supplied, with 18,673 and 1,398 tonnes throughput and producer prices N$59 and N$37/kg respectively. Separate markets are calculated. A quantitative flow across the veterinary fence is not inferred from this source; the default interface volume is unresolved. PE treats the two as separate markets with independent prices. Processing capacity and cold-storage information are also unresolved.
Vaccine and laboratory capacity, food-security distribution, jobs and public costs need official inventories, farm and household data or audited administrative costs before they can be reported as impacts.
The slider’s “market closure” and “reopening lag” combine stages 1–4 as an illustrative economic timeline; they do not predict WOAH or importer decisions. The market-access input is destination specific.
Read the revised 60-month scientific paper, source audit, policy/stakeholder comparison, equations and limitations. Download the fixed-default paper PDF; the CSV buttons export your current scenario inputs and monthly outputs.