{
  "version": "2.0",
  "status": "Working economic optimisations using fixed aggregate scenario assumptions; not an epidemiological forecast",
  "scenarioReference": "Feng, Patton and Davis (2017), median UK FMD market outcomes; no new disease-spread simulation",
  "lpDisease": {
    "risk": 0.2,
    "coverage": 0.6,
    "infectionEffect": 0.45,
    "severityEffect": 0.55,
    "vectorEffect": 0.1,
    "vectorCost": 3,
    "subsidy": 0,
    "compensation": 0,
    "fixed": 1500,
    "publicAdmin": 0,
    "nutrition": 0.05,
    "extraLabour": 0.6,
    "species": [
      {
        "name": "Sheep",
        "mortality": 0.02,
        "outputLoss": 0.245,
        "treatment": 12,
        "fertility": 8,
        "course": 5
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "mortality": 0.02,
        "outputLoss": 0.079,
        "treatment": 35,
        "fertility": 20,
        "course": 12
      }
    ]
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "name": "Sheepmeat",
      "unit": "million kg",
      "q": 282,
      "price": 7.1,
      "imports": 91,
      "exports": 99,
      "animals": 14780000,
      "supply": 0.3,
      "demand": -0.5,
      "importElasticity": 1.5,
      "exportElasticity": 1,
      "affected": 0.2,
      "outputLoss": 0.03,
      "cost": 0.18,
      "course": 5,
      "exportShock": 0.9
    },
    {
      "name": "Beef",
      "unit": "million kg",
      "q": 898,
      "price": 6.47,
      "imports": 309,
      "exports": 142,
      "animals": 1290000,
      "supply": 0.25,
      "demand": -0.5,
      "importElasticity": 1.5,
      "exportElasticity": 1,
      "affected": 0.12,
      "outputLoss": 0.02,
      "cost": 0.12,
      "course": 12,
      "exportShock": 0.9
    },
    {
      "name": "Pigmeat",
      "unit": "million kg",
      "q": 937,
      "price": 2.013,
      "imports": 766,
      "exports": 342,
      "animals": 407000,
      "supply": 0.35,
      "demand": -0.55,
      "importElasticity": 1.8,
      "exportElasticity": 1.2,
      "affected": 0.15,
      "outputLoss": 0.025,
      "cost": 0.08,
      "course": 7,
      "exportShock": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "pePolicy": {
    "coverage": 0.6,
    "infectionEffect": 0.45,
    "severityEffect": 0.55,
    "vectorEffect": 0.1,
    "vectorCost": 3,
    "subsidy": 0,
    "compensation": 0,
    "admin": 5000000,
    "tradeRecovery": 0.35,
    "years": 5,
    "discount": 0.035
  },
  "dp": {
    "area": "Illustrative UK livestock economy",
    "years": 4,
    "discount": 0.035,
    "pressure": 0.3,
    "initialVaccine": 0,
    "initialNatural": 0,
    "season": [
      0.25,
      0.25,
      0.25,
      0.25
    ],
    "infectionEffect": 0.45,
    "severityEffect": 0.55,
    "vaccineWaning": 0.08,
    "naturalWaning": 0.03,
    "overwinter": 0.65,
    "carry": 0.88,
    "feedback": 0.25,
    "external": 0.02,
    "subsidy": 0.5,
    "compensation": 0,
    "publicVector": 0.15,
    "farmVector": 0.1,
    "movementShare": 0.5,
    "movementEffect": 0.45,
    "movementCost": 0.2,
    "admin": 50000,
    "vectorProgramme": 100000,
    "movementProgramme": 100000,
    "budget": 2000000,
    "farms": [
      {
        "name": "Sheep enterprises",
        "animals": 100000,
        "risk": 1,
        "loss": 60,
        "course": 5,
        "vectorCost": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "Beef enterprises",
        "animals": 20000,
        "risk": 1,
        "loss": 260,
        "course": 12,
        "vectorCost": 5
      },
      {
        "name": "Dairy enterprises",
        "animals": 10000,
        "risk": 1,
        "loss": 380,
        "course": 12,
        "vectorCost": 6
      },
      {
        "name": "Pig enterprises",
        "animals": 25000,
        "risk": 1,
        "loss": 95,
        "course": 7,
        "vectorCost": 3
      }
    ]
  }
}